Non existent credibility trigger the Fed is once more out of synch with the market and the information. Yields dropping as a brand new Fed coverage error of staying too excessive too lengthy would kill any delicate touchdown narrative. Powell’s bought some explaining to do. pic.twitter.com/GVsDvjIqab
If Empire new orders index is any indication of the place ISM new orders will come on Feb. 1st, and there definitely seems to be a correlation, it should be ugly. -31.1 is the third worst month-to-month quantity because the survey was created in 2001. pic.twitter.com/2T15Bq0CYR
The 10Y is consolidating earlier than its remaining transfer upward to five%. This would be the remaining nail within the coffin for this market. I anticipate the S&P 500 to plunge to 2000, the Russell 2000 to drop to 1000, and the Nasdaq 100 to fall to 6500.
Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich believes the Federal Reserve’s price hikes will not be working and mentioned the central financial institution ought to cease believing it might simply cease profit-price inflation by mountaineering rates of interest.
Gentle touchdown for the US economic system? It’s trying much less and fewer doubtless. The bond market (10-year Treasury yield) simply shed -14.1 foundation factors. As I at all times advised my investments college students, any 10 foundation level shift within the 10-year Treasury yield is critical.
Let’s begin wit the US enterprise leaders survey of present circumstances. It simply crashed to -21.4
Then now we have US industrial manufacturing, down -0.7% in December. And is up only one.65% year-over-year as M2 Cash development stalls.
See additionallyInflation Alert! Inflation in providers (the place almost 2/3 of shopper spending goes) jumped +0.6% month-to-month and seven.5% year-over-year to a 40 yr excessive. Inflation is NOT slowing down and information exhibits it’s turning into entrenched in providers, the place the majority of cash is spent.
