Yesterday, I instructed my household “The excellent news is that Rotolo’s Pizza tastes even higher reheated within the morning. The unhealthy information? I ate the one two piece left.”
Which brings me to the September jobs report. The excellent news is that 263k jobs had been added to the US financial system. Meaning 10,521k jobs have been added within the 21 months beneath Biden! (Keep in mind that 12,100k jobs had been added within the 7 months beneath Trump following the Covid financial shutdown, but no media outlet trumpeted that accomplishment).
The unhealthy information? Whereas nominal common hourly earnings grew by 5% YoY, after I subtract Bidenflation from that quantity I get -3.06% development. Or ought to I say that REAL wages are shrinking beneath Biden.
Now for the “Biden Miracle” of jobs being added. Here’s a chart of NFP jobs added (white line) in opposition to M2 Cash and headline inflation. Each The Fed and the Federal authorities pumped trillions into the financial system resulting in the very best inflation price in 40 years. As soon as governments stopped with their Covid shutdown nonsense, jobs would return no matter who was President. BUT Federal spending and Fed cash printing went off the rails in early 2020.
As Paul Harvey used to say, “Right here is the remainder of the story.” Labor power participation fell in September and the U-3 unemployment price fell barely to three.5%.
However labor power dropouts elevated main U-3 unemployment to say no. The variety of individuals NOT within the labor power grew to just about 100 million. Nothing has been the identical since Covid.
So what is going to The Fed do? In line with Fed Funds Futures knowledge (WIRP), The Fed will preserve elevating charges till March ’23 then slowly begin decreasing rates of interest once more.
A Rotolo’s “Tutto” Pizza!
